Do All Social Networks Have an Expiration Date?

Social Networks Are As Popular As the People Using Them

A social grows because it is new, exciting and trendy. The growth of social networks depends on the first adaptor, the sneezers and the cool people to the spread the word and grow the user base. But the first adaptor, the sneezer and the cool trendy folks only stay for a while; after all being on the bleeding edge requires a sort of nomadic movement from one trend to another. Stay too long at one particular place and you miss the next big thing. Ivor Tossell believes Facebook’s Days are Numbered. While I do not believe their days will be over anytime soon, the mere dynamics of how a social network grows will eventually lead to the decline of Facebook and the rise of yet another social network.

Social Networks Are Like Bars

At least they are a lot like bars here in Buffalo, NY.

Here in Buffalo we have what is known as the Chippewa bar district. Chippewa is the destination for the young and trendy here in Western New York on a Friday or Saturday night. There is nothing but bars for four straight city blocks. The Chippewa scene is unique though. Not for the number of bars or the amount of young people that flock to the area, it is unique in that because it is so densely populated with bars the number of choices to spend your time and money that the bars often reopen under a different name, some yearly, just to stay new, hip and fresh.

Why do they re-open every year under a new name?

It is simple: to take advantage of the all of the buzz that is associated with being new. People do not talk about what is old. They talk about what is new or what is coming in the future. All bars do the same thing. They serve as a place to hang out, have fun and drink alcohol. More often then not, what makes a bar unique is the people that go to the bar. It is the cool and trendy, the sneezer, that makes or breaks a bar. The second and third wave of users (or visitors) never spread the word like the first wave of early adaptors and sneezers. Unless you are unique enough to keep the trendy and cool people talking about you month after month, year after year, you will eventually fade away.

What Makes a Social Network Unique?

There are hundreds of social networks. A social network, is a social network. Just as a bar is a bar. Is Facebook really that unique compared to other social networks? Sure, it has a pretty cool developers platform and it has not yet been monetized to the extent that some has, but is it really that much different from any other social network? No. At it’s core, Facebook is just another social network fighting for our attention. The only thing that separates one social network from another is the people who are there.

Right now Facebook is unique because Facebook has the first adaptors, the sneezers and the trendy as users. They coming to the site to hang out with friends, meet new ones and to have fun. But unless Facebook can somehow continue to evolve and keep the first adaptors, the sneezers and the trendy it will eventually end up just like that bar on Chippewa - old, forgettable and in need of a name change when those people no longer show up. Facebook is nowhere near it’s peak, but it does have an expiration date - every social network does.

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